{"id":1757,"date":"2011-11-30T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-30T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tom-nan.com\/2011\/11\/toms-hurricane-season-recap\/"},"modified":"2011-11-30T23:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-11-30T23:00:00","slug":"toms-hurricane-season-recap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/30\/toms-hurricane-season-recap\/","title":{"rendered":"Tom’s Hurricane Season Recap"},"content":{"rendered":"

As I write this there is an area of low pressure about 500 miles NE of the Leeward Islands with a 20% chance of becoming a \u201csubtropical\u201d cyclone in the next 48 hours. That said, today is the last day of the 2011 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. How did we fare this year?<\/p>\n

In August, Dr. Gray issued an update to his seasonal forecast.  In it he called for 9 hurricanes with 5 of them being major hurricanes.  He called for 16 named storms, down one from his June 2011 forecast of 17 named storms. Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also updated their outlook for the season too.  In it they called for 14 \u2013 19 named storms, 7 \u201310 hurricanes, and 3 \u2013 5 major hurricanes.<\/p>\n

How many named<\/u> storms did we actually get?<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Storm Name<\/td>\nDates<\/td>\nMax Wind (MPH)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Arlene<\/td>\n20 June \u2013 1 July<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Bret<\/td>\n17 \u2013 22 July<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Cindy<\/td>\n20 \u2013 22 July<\/td>\n70<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DS Don<\/td>\n27 \u2013 30 July<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Emily<\/td>\n1 \u2013 7 August<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Franklin<\/td>\n12 \u2013 13 August<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Gert<\/td>\n13 \u2013 16 August<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Harvey<\/td>\n19 \u2013 22 August<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MH Irene<\/td>\n20 \u2013 28 August<\/td>\n120<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Jose<\/td>\n28 \u2013 29 August<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MH Katia<\/td>\n29 August \u2013 10 September<\/td>\n135<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Lee<\/td>\n2 \u2013 5 September<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H Maria<\/td>\n6 \u2013 16 September<\/td>\n80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H Nate (1)<\/td>\n7 \u2013 11 September<\/td>\n70<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MH Ophelia<\/td>\n21 September \u2013 3 October<\/td>\n140<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H Philipe<\/td>\n24 September \u2013 9 October<\/td>\n90<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H Rina<\/td>\n23 \u2013 28 October<\/td>\n110<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TS Sean<\/td>\n7 \u2013 11 November<\/td>\n65 (2)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note 1<\/strong>. Hurricane Nate was upgraded during post-storm analysis to hurricane status. I haven\u2019t seen the maximum observed wind on Nate so I\u2019ve left the 70mph number as is.<\/p>\n

Note 2<\/strong>. The strongest report I can find on maximum sustained winds in TS Sean were 65mph. NHC has not yet issued their final summary on the season, so I’ll update this post if 65mph was NOT the maximum wind for this storm.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Scorecard<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

I count 18 named storms though I\u2019ve seen attempts by others in other places to count Tropical Depression 10 as a named storm.  My scorecard for the early forecasts:<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
 <\/td>\nCPC<\/td>\nDr. Gray<\/td>\nActual<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Number Named<\/td>\n14 – 19<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hurricanes<\/td>\n7 – 10<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maj Hurricanes<\/td>\n3 – 5<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/blockquote>\n

While we had more than the average number of named storms, our number of actual hurricanes was about average.  The increased number of named storms can be attributed to better sensing technology, modeling capabilities, and forecasting abilities. Four of the named storms had winds of 50 miles per hour (or less) many of which might not have been caught 20 or 30 years ago.<\/p>\n

As far as storms go, my philosophy is that it\u2019s better to be prepared and not have a storm rather than not be prepared and actually getting one.  I like to attempt to try to forecast where they will go before the National Hurricane Center starts issuing forecasts on them\u2026 I did that last year and again this year.  My best forecast was for Irene.  I predicted it would \u201cRake the east coast\u201d with a landfall in North Carolina approximately a week before it did\u2026 was my best attempt at forecasting a hurricane ever.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s Ahead?<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Storm names for 2012 from the National Hurricane Center:<\/p>\n

\n

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Our next hurricane season begins in just 185 days\u2026 Are you ready? If not follow the old scout motto of \u201cBe Prepared\u201d so make a plan and be ready!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As I write this there is an area of low pressure about 500 miles NE of the Leeward Islands with a 20% chance of becoming a \u201csubtropical\u201d cyclone in the next 48 hours. That said, today is the last day of the 2011 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. How did we fare this year? … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1757\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tom-nan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}